Bin Laden Video Warns America

In a new video, Osama bin Laden says Americans' security does not depend on the president they elect, but on U.S. policy. "Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda."- Click here for the latest.

British Ex-Detainees Sue Rumsfeld

Four former Guantanamo detainees, now back in Britain, have filed suit against Donald Rumsfeld and others alleging they were tortured in violation of international law. The suit seeks $10 million in damages for treatment it describes as including

...repeated beatings, death threats, interrogation at gunpoint, forced nakedness and menacing with unmuzzled dogs, among other mistreatment, during more than two years at Guantanamo Bay."

New Polls

A Pew Research Center Poll finds Sen. John Kerry "has made more substantial gains among swing voters in the past month" than has President Bush. "Those who have decided on their vote in the past month mention the debates as a crucial factor in their decision more than any other events or issues."
The new Democracy Corps poll shows Kerry leading 49% to 46%.
The new Economist poll shows Kerry leading 49% to 45%.
Here are some notable state polls:
- Pennsylvania: Bush 49, Kerry 47 (Quinnipiac)
- Florida: Bush 49, Kerry 46 (Quinnipiac)
- Wisconsin: Kerry 48, Bush 47 (ARG)
- Iowa: Bush 48, Kerry 47 (ARG)
- Oregon: Kerry 50, Bush 46 (ARG)
(Via Political Wire)

100,000 Civilians Killed in Iraq

"About 100,000 civilians have died as a result of the war in Iraq, according to research from Johns Hopkins University," Bloomberg reports.
"Most of the casualties occurred after the end of major hostilities in May 2003, researchers said in the study. Observations suggest that civilian deaths since the war are mostly caused by air strikes."

Bush Voted Year's Top Film Villain

President George W. Bush has topped an unlikely poll in Britain - as this year's top screen villain. Bush won the dubious accolade for his unauthorized appearance in Michael Moore's anti-Bush documentary Fahrenheit 9/11. The politician beat out the likes of Doc Ock, played by Alfred Molina, in Spider-Man 2; The Texas Chainsaw Massacre's Leatherface; Andy Serkis' Gollum from Lord Of The Rings trilogy; and Elle Driver, the assassin played by Daryl Hannah in Kill Bill. Almost 10,000 people voted in the poll, conducted by Total Film Magazine.

Visualize Winning

It's a nice flash animation. Watch it

Bush Misleads On Cost Of War

Before the invasion of Iraq, the Bush administration told the American people that it could be fought on the cheap. Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz said "We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction and relatively soon." Budget Director Mitch Daniels said Iraq will be "an affordable endeavor","that will not require sustained aid" and cost "in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion." Defense Policy Board Member Richard Perle said, "Iraq is a very wealthy country...They can finance, largely finance, the reconstruction of their own country." They were all wrong. The Washington Post reports "the Bush administration intends to seek about $70 billion in emergency funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan early next year, pushing total war costs close to $225 billion since the invasion of Iraq early last year."

U.S. failed to reject torture in 'war on terror'

Today in the The Daily Star:

The United States has manifestly failed to uphold obligations to reject torture and cruel, inhuman or degrading behavior in the 'war on terror' launched after Sept. 11, 2001, Amnesty International said today.
The human rights group condemned the U.S. administration's response to the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington as one which had resulted in its own 'iconography of torture, cruelty and degradation.'"
Photographs that surfaced in April showed U.S. soldiers posing, smiling and giving the thumbs-up sign as naked, male Iraqi prisoners were stacked in a pyramid or positioned to simulate sex acts with one another.
Amnesty said the U.S. and the rest of the world would be "haunted by these and other images for years to come" and described them as "icons of a government's failure to put human rights at its heart."(...)
Sunday's Washington Post said U.S. intelligence officials were transferring detainees out of Iraq for interrogation. In those cases, the Central Intelligence Agency had invoked a confidential Justice Department memo to justify its actions, the Post said

New Florida Vote Scandal Feared

The Florida GOP wants to keep blacks from voting.

A secret document obtained from inside Bush campaign headquarters in Florida suggests a plan - possibly in violation of US law - to disrupt voting in the state's African-American voting districts, a BBC Newsnight investigation reveals. Election supervisor Ion Sancho believes some voters are being intimidated. Two e-mails, prepared for the executive director of the Bush campaign in Florida and the campaign's national research director in Washington DC, contain a 15-page so-called "caging list". It lists 1,886 names and addresses of voters in predominantly black and traditionally Democrat areas of Jacksonville, Florida.
An elections supervisor in Tallahassee, when shown the list, told Newsnight: "The only possible reason why they would keep such a thing is to challenge voters on election day." [...]
In Jacksonville, to determine if Republicans were using the lists or other means of intimidating voters, we filmed a private detective filming every "early voter" - the majority of whom are black - from behind a vehicle with blacked-out windows. The private detective claimed not to know who was paying for his all-day services. On the scene, Democratic Congresswoman Corinne Brown said the surveillance operation was part of a campaign of intimidation tactics used by the Republican Party to intimate and scare off African American voters, almost all of whom are registered Democrats.

Bush Missleads On Missive Explosives

Misleader: In Iraq, 380 tons of powerful explosives have been looted and may have fallen into the hands of insurgents. In an effort to deflect blame, administration officials are pushing the theory that when "U.S. forces...reached the Al Qaqaa military facility in early April 2003, the weapons cache was already gone." This theory is not credible. According to an AP report, U.S. solders visited the Al Qaqaa in April 2003 and "found thousands of five-centimetre by 12-centimetre boxes, each containing three vials of white powder." Officials who tested the powder said it was "believed to be explosives." Yesterday, "an official who monitors developments in Iraq" confirmed that "US-led coalition troops had searched Al Qaqaa in the immediate aftermath of the March 2003 invasion and confirmed that the explosives, which had been under IAEA seal since 1991, were intact." Thereafter, according to the official, "the site was not secured by U.S. forces." It makes sense that the explosives were there when the U.S. solders arrived because, as the LA Times notes, "given the size of the missing cache, it would have been difficult to relocate undetected before the invasion, when U.S. spy satellites were monitoring activity."

Stunning Consumer Confidence Fall

According to Bloomberg U.S. consumer confidence fell for a third straight month in October, suggesting growing voter discontent with the economy a week before President George W. Bush seeks re-election.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 92.8, the lowest since March, from a revised 96.7 in September, down from the previous estimate. Americans' assessments of the current economy and their outlook for the next six months fell. The survey is the Conference Board's last before the U.S. presidential election on November 2. Since the index began in 1967, every incumbent president has lost his re-election bid when the consumer confidence index was below 99 on Election Day. "It's not good news for Bush. He can still win, but this is not a good omen," said Delos Smith, a Conference Board economist. "People are nervous about their jobs and incomes."

Duuh...

Fear and Loathing, Campaign 2004

A fantastic article about the presidential campaign by legendary 'gonzo journalist' Hunter S. Thompson in Rolling Stone magazine. The last paragraph:

We conquered Lyndon Johnson and we stomped on Richard Nixon -- which wise people said was impossible, but so what? It was fun. We were warriors then, and our tribe was strong like a river.
That river is still running. All we have to do is get out and vote, while it's still legal, and we will wash those crooked warmongers out of the White House.

Note to myself: I absolutely have to read his latest book "Hey Rube : Blood Sport, the Bush Doctrine, and the Downward Spiral of Dumbness Modern History from the Sports Desk".

Pentagon Knows Where Bin Laden Is Hiding

Why isn't this receiving more attention? Jim Lehman, a member of the 9/11 Commission and former Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan - as well as Colin Powell - say the U.S. knows exactly where Osama is hiding in Pakistan.

Bin Laden is living in South Waziristan in the Baluchistan Mountains of the Baluchistan region, Lehman told The San Bernardino Sun after delivering a keynote speech on terrorism at Pitzer College in Claremont....

So what are we waiting for? Why don't we go in and get him? Check out this lame excuse:

If we did, we could have another Vietnam, and the United States cannot afford that right now.

Excuse me? We could invade Iraq to take out Saddam who wasn't a threat to us but we won't go in and get bin Laden? Or will the Pakistani capture the mastermind behind 9/11 shortyl before election day, as part of a deal with the U.S., revealed by the New Republic magazine last July? The irony is, he's doesn't even have to starve, because he's getting money. In addition to funds from other countries, he's getting a million a year from his family. (Via TalkLeft)

100 Facts

For all the misinformed Bush supporters - but also the indecided voters: The Nation magazine has a very handy reference: "100 Facts and 1 Opinion: The Non-Arguable Case Against the Bush Administration (also downloadable as PDF)

Bush supporters are misinformed

The Bushies can't get the facts straight and live in a world of their own. A survey by the University of Maryland's Program on International Policy Attitudes shows that the Bush supporters of Bush see a "separate reality" about Iraq and other foreign-policy issues. Some examples:

- 75% believe Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda.
- 74% believe Bush favors including labor and environmental standards in agreements on trade.
- 72% believe Iraq had WMD or a program to develop them.
- 61% believe if Bush knew there were no WMD he would not have gone to war.
- 60% believe most experts believe Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda.
- 58% believe the Duelfer report concluded that Iraq had either WMD or a major program to develop them.
- 51% believe Bush supports the Kyoto treaty.
- 57% believe that the majority of people in the world would prefer to see Bush reelected (!!).
- 20% believe Iraq was directly involved in 9/11.

More of their disturbing beliefs here. Plus: the entire survey as PDF.

Religious Leaders Ahead in Iraq Poll

Oops, the U.S. didn't want Iraq to be THAT free. The Washington Post writes that leaders of Iraq's religious parties have emerged as the country's most popular politicians and would win the largest share of votes if an election were held today, while the U.S.-backed government of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is losing serious ground, according to a U.S.-financed poll by the International Republican Institute.

The most expensive campaign

Make that billions not millions: Campaign spending is off the chart. At $1.2 billion, this is the most expensive presidential election in history. Add congressional races and the total reaches almost $4 billion — a 30 percent increase from four years ago, according to an analysis of campaign finance figures released yesterday by the District-based Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan research group.

New Polls

A new Knight Ridder/MSNBC poll showed "Kerry has not locked up the swing states that voted Democratic four years ago. In fact, the poll shows that three presidential debates, millions of dollars in campaign advertising and numerous visits from the candidates have changed few minds in those states in the last month."
Here are some notable state polls:
- Pennsylvania: Kerry 47, Bush 41 (Quinnipiac)
- Minnesota: Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Mason-Dixon)
- Ohio: Kerry 50, Bush 44 (Gallup)
- Michigan: Kerry 51, Bush 44 (Survey USA)
- Michigan: Kerry 47, Bush 46 (Mason-Dixon)
- Iowa: Bush 49, Kerry 43 (Mason-Dixon)
For an excellent roundup of the latest state polls, see 2.004k.com.
The Electoral Vote Predictor shows the race tied: Kerry 264, Bush 264. (Via Political Wire)

Poll Finds Pro-Kerry Vote Fever at Colleges

L.A. Times: Drawn by the war in Iraq and an uncertain economy, college students are showing more interest in politics this year than they did in 2000, and they favor Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry over President Bush by 13 percentage points, according to a poll released Thursday by Harvard University. Voter turnout among young people has fallen steadily since 18-year-olds were given the right to vote in 1972. But in the new poll, 84% of students said they would 'definitely be voting' this year, compared with 50% who said so in the spring of 2000, when the Harvard Institute of Politics began surveying the population.
"

Brokerage firms big campaign contributors

L.A. Times: Brokerage firms dominate the list of employers whose workers have contributed the most, in total, to President Bush's reelection campaign. By contrast, employees of major brokerages have contributed far less to Sen. John F. Kerry's campaign.
The Top 5 Bush contributors are: Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, UBS Financial Services, Goldman Sachs Group.
The Top 5 Kerry contributors are: University of California, Harward University, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, Skadden, Arps.

Kerry Campaign Shifts Its Focus to Southwest

L. A. Times: Except for Florida, Democrats have all but given up on the South, an unprecedented move.

Top 35 Trends that say Kerry Will Win

The trends exposed at Political Strategy and outlined below:

1) Bush must lead by 4%.
2) The 'Cell Phone Polling' Phenomenon.
3) Zogby is the Most Accurate Pollster.
4)Kerry Has Large Lead in Swing States.
5) PA Goes to Kerry.
6) Seniors Favor Kerry.
7) Kerry Appeals to Independents in the Debates.
8) Kerry Appeals to independents.
9) New Standard for Get Out The Vote.
10) Democrats Won the Registration Wars: Voter Registrations have heavily favored the Democratic party this cycle.
Debate Effect
11) Kerry Erased Doubts About Himself.
12) Bush Increased Doubts About Himself.

Bushies' remains: fear tactics

The Bush-Cheney campaign is now running a commercial that features a pack of wolves (play video). The have to. Because they have no other issues left. They can't run on the economy - the economic indicator sinks for the 4th month. They can't even run on Iraq.

Post-war planning non-existent

A Knight Ridder review of the administration's Iraq policy and decisions has found that it invaded Iraq without a comprehensive plan in place to secure and rebuild the country. The administration also failed to provide some 100,000 additional U.S. troops that American military commanders originally wanted to help restore order and reconstruct a country shattered by war, a brutal dictatorship and economic sanctions."We didn't go in with a plan. We went in with a theory," said a veteran State Department officer who was directly involved in Iraq policy.

A Bad Week for Bush

Washington Monthly summarizes how bad the week has been for the White House:
• Thursday: George Bush gets his butt kicked by John Kerry in the first presidential debate.
• Saturday: Partly due to Bush's dismal debate performance, polls indicate that Kerry is catching up. Bush's lead appears to have been reduced to 2-3 points.
• Monday: Donald Rumsfeld admits that Saddam Hussein didn't have any substantial ties to al-Qaeda. "To my knowledge, I have not seen any strong, hard evidence that links the two." After his statement is reported, he tries unsucessfully to claim that he was "misunderstood."
• Later Monday: The CIA agrees with Rumsfeld. The linchpin of the administration's case for collaboration between Saddam and al-Qaeda has been Saddam's alleged "harboring" of terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, but a CIA report concludes that it probably didn't happen. "The evidence is that Saddam never gave Zarqawi anything," said an official who read the report.
• Tuesday: Paul Bremer admits that the administration made a big mistake by not having enough troops in Iraq. "The single most important change -- the one thing that would have improved the situation -- would have been having more troops in Iraq at the beginning and throughout" the occupation.
When his statement becomes public, Bremer complains that his remarks were "off the record." For its part, the Bush administration tries to claim that Bremer was lying, but is forced to backtrack almost immediately when it becomes apparent that Bremer did ask for more troops as far back as July 2003.
• Later Tuesday: Dick Cheney initially appears to fight John Edwards to a near draw in the vice presidential debate, but before long attention shifts to Cheney's numerous and obvious lies during the debate. This is likely to be the consensus post-debate talking point.
• Wednesday: Weapons inspector Charles Duelfer releases his final report. He says that Saddam Hussein destroyed all his WMD after 1991, had no WMD programs in place after that, and that his capacity to build WMD was actually deteriorating after 1998, not increasing.
• Thursday: Polls show that Bush has lost nearly his entire lead. The race is now a dead heat. AP/Ipsos actually shows Kerry ahead.
• Today: The report released by the Labor Department shows that U.S. companies added only 96,000 jobs to their payrolls in September, fewer than economists forecast (150,000) for the last employment report before Election Day. The economy should be creating 250,000 jobs or more per month by now.
That's a bad week. I wonder how George Bush will be feeling when he takes the stage tonight? A little bit nervous, perhaps?

Faces Of Frustration

The DNC has a great new silent video simply highlighting all the faces Bush made last night during the debate. It's classic.

Debate Secrets

NPR's Connie Rice lists theTop 10 Secrets they don't want you to know about the presidential debates.

First Debate Polls Favor Kerry

John Kerry "fared better" than President Bush in last night's presidential debate, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Of those who watched, 53% said Kerry did the better job, compared with 37% who favored Bush. "Kerry's chief strength: 60 percent said he expressed himself more clearly than Bush did."
The ABC News poll shows Kerry "won the first debate and with it a shot at reinvigorating his campaign for the presidency." Kerry was the winner 45% to 36%.
A CBS News instant poll of uncommitted voters found Kerry won 43% to 28%. A key observation: "Bush appeared perturbed when Kerry leveled some of his charges, scowling at times and looking away in apparent disgust at others. Kerry often took notes when the president spoke."
The American Research Group also found Kerry the overwhelming winner, with two survey panels saying Kerry was the victor. Panel 1 was 51% to 41%, Panel 2 was 52% to 42%.
A Democracy Corps survey found Kerry "decisively won tonight's presidential debate by a margin of 45 to 32 percent. Kerry gained a modest two points in the head-to-head race with Bush, cutting in half Bush's initial lead in the survey, but measures of Kerry's standing on key personal attributes and top issues suggest Kerry made much more significant gains among likely voters who watched the debate. The Democratic candidate achieved major gains across the board on personal favorability, the security issues that dominated the debate, and key leadership attributes."

Baghdad Year Zero

Great stoy by Naomi Klein in Harper's about what's really going on in Baghdad. A must-read.